War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the election under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".